Monday Night Football Odds, Prediction


Commanders vs. Eagles Odds

The Eagles jumped out to a 24-0 first-half lead at Washington in Week 3 and held on to win 24-8, easily covering the spread of -5.5 despite not scoring a single point in the second half.  That lackluster second half also helped the under (47.5) cash without much of a sweat. Should we expect a similar result this time around?

Commanders vs. Eagles Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Commanders and Eagles match up statistically:

Commanders vs. Eagles DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA 20 3
Pass DVOA 29 2
Rush DVOA 27 27
Overall DVOA 4 14
Pass DVOA 3 25
Rush DVOA 5 2

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense are second in points per game (28.1) and fourth in DVOA, but Washington is one of the tougher defenses they will face.

In the first meeting between these teams, the Commanders held the Eagles to a season-low 72 rushing yards. Hurts was held to his lowest yards per carry average (2.22) and second-lowest rushing total (20 yards) in a game this season.

Despite connecting on pass plays of 45, 44 and 31 yards to DeVonta Smith, plus a 40-yarder to Grant Calcaterra, the Eagles managed to hang just 24 points on the scoreboard. They were forced to punt six times, a season high, and were held scoreless on eight of their 12 drives (excluding the final possession when they ran out the clock).

Ron Rivera’s defense is second against the run and third in pressure rate (26.6%, per Pro Football Reference). This is a recipe for success against a Philadelphia squad that averages the second-most rush attempts per game (34.5) and sees Hurts’ passer rating drop from 119.6 in a clean pocket to 76.7 under pressure. Washington’s pass defense has improved since cornerback William Jackson III (who has since been traded) was benched in Week 5.

According to RBsDM.com, the Washington defense is sixth in pass success rate (42.5%) and ninth in dropback expected points added per play (-0.037) since Week 5. It was 17th in pass success rate (45.1%) and 27th in dropback EPA per play (0.199) in Weeks 1-4.


Bet Washington vs. Philadelphia at FanDuel
Commanders +10.5 | Eagles -10.5


When the Commanders have the ball, they’ll face a top-three Eagles defense that held them scoreless for the first 58 minutes and five seconds of the first meeting.

Washington was quarterbacked by Carson Wentz in that one, but it’s not like Taylor Heinicke matches up any better. The Eagles are eighth in pressure rate and Heinicke’s passer rating under pressure (36.6) ranks 38th of 41 qualified quarterbacks, per PFF. The Eagles play zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the league and Washington is 27th in yards per target versus man coverage (6.7) since Heinicke took over in Week 7 (they’re sixth versus man coverage over that same span).

Heinicke loves to feed the ball to Terry McLaurin, who has drawn 28.4% of his targets and accounted for 38.5% of his passing yardage, but the Eagles are second in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, per Football Outsiders. McLaurin has been beating some big name corners lately, but this is still a tough matchup against Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who rank fourth and 14th, respectively, in PFF coverage grade among 114 qualified corners.  Thanks to those studs on the outside, the Eagles have allowed the lowest rate of explosive pass plays of 16 or more yards (8.5%)

The Eagles are vulnerable on the ground, but the Commanders’ 27th-ranked rushing attack is not guaranteed to be able to exploit them. Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. have been disappointing on the ground, combining to average just 3.51 yards per carry on 156 carries.

Washington’s best means of offense in this game figures to be Curtis Samuel, who has carried 18 times for 122 yards (6.22 YPC). Samuel also figures to see high-percentage looks from the slot with the Eagles missing starting nickel corner Avonte Maddox (hamstring).

Whether the Commanders are able to run or not, they will attempt to shorten the game as best they can. Per Football Outsiders, they rank 31st in situation-neutral pace (33.45 seconds) and 24th in average seconds between plays in the first half (29.50).

 

Both defenses match up well with the opposing offenses here, giving this game all the makings of a gritty, low-scoring NFC East matchup.

Per our Action Labs data, outdoor Divisional unders are 57-34 (63%) since the start of last season.

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